CSY's Journal: Maths and Musings

Special Hunt Info Many links have been lost to time :) 1. Riolu [1] 2. Tepig [1] 3. Turtwig [1] 4. Shroomish [1] 5. Apocalyptic Golett [1] (First melan as Arceus!) 6. Mareep [1] 1. Chimchar [18] Some interesting info! As of 28/10/2017 - 10 out of 12 of the melan chimchars on the site were hatched by me. - 3 out of 7 of the melan infernapes on the site were hatched by me. - 4 out of 4 of the melan monfernos on the site were hatched by me. 18 out of 23 of the melan chimchar line on the site were hatched by me. Since hunting infernape, i have increased the total number of melan chimchars (/evos) by 360%. Kina Kina hunt Girafarig Fennekin [11]: Ralts [2]: Litwick [8]: Misdreavus [16] Ardik [17] No. 2 lost to time :> Victini [2] Heatran [1] Eevee [3] Palkia [1] Zygarde [1] Reshiram [2] Sizzlipede Riolu v2 Pooper Marshadow Lechonk Shinx Impyre Jangmo Solynx Kubfu Kyogre Moltres

Body Image Are you okay? She asks. Yes I'm fine. I answered. How do you explain the pain and longing To one that love, never occurred? You feeling alright? He asks. Yea, I'm okay. I reply. For how do you explain the passion and sentiment Whilst under a stoic lie? You good today? They ask. All good - I say, subdued. But how do you begin to live your life truthfully In a society that shuns people like you? Am I really okay? I ask. Looking deep into my mind. Or maybe, that's just what I want to believe. They are wrong, I am right. I am not shallow. Whilst I fondle over my body. One that I do not like. No, I am not shallow. For they are wrong, and I am right. -CSY

Amazing gifts from amazing friends. [I'm sorry if I missed someone out. I started this post on 31st August 2017, and my memory isn't very good... Also, if you want to get added here, or get removed, just shoot me a PM ^^]

Kinaster, breeding, and clicking So, with Kinaster now being breedable, here's some information/stats for anyone who wants to hunt it. How do I breed Kinaster? - Kinaster is a baby pokemon, like happiny. It cannot breed - You need a Lunupine and Solynx pair, preferably at 99% - The parents need to have max affection - not to be confused with happiness - which can be boosted with Big Malasada, or Perfect berries of the parents' berry preference How common are Kinaster eggs? *Special thanks to Travocity94 for the stats. He's the guy who found the first shiny and albino Kinaster - so go give them a click! From Travocity94, 153620 interactions gives 41 clicks with a red gigaremo on. Thats an average of 1 kinaster egg in 3747 interactions. If you want a comparison, I personally did an Apoc. Golett hunt, which averaged about 1 egg in 1.1k clicks with a red gig. on, with a 68% pair. I also did a snowpoke hunt, which averaged 1 in 900 clicks without red gig, with a 97% pair. This is just for perspective. Shiny Hunting Kinaster The thing about shiny hunting kinaster is, you need to start with 40 eggs. And Travocity has pretty much provided the stats for that - you'll need about 150k interactions, with red gig. active to start the 40 egg chain. Now lets get onto the fun part. What about after the chains started? Well, the conglomerate shiny chances seem to be about 1 in 25. To get 25 eggs, you need about 93670 interactions. Doesn't sound that bad, does it? Melan Hunting Kinaster Anywho, for a bit of maths about melan hunting this thing. Lets say you have max boosts as well as Arceus. From what I hear, you can expect a melan at about 2k, on average. How many interactions do you need for 2k Kinaster eggs with a red gig? 7,493,658. point 5. That's... more interactions that most people on the site have done ^^; How long would it take to get it though? I think its feasible to say one can probably do 75k on average a day, if you really put your mind into it. That means it would take... about 100 days of 75k interactions a day to mathematically get a melan kinaster. Link *This post isn't to discourage you from hunting it! I just like maths and statistics =3 *If you have more statistics, or you want to comment on this post, feel free to PM me c: *Good luck to ya'll hunting kinaster =3

"I have a dream" ~Martin Luther King, Jr. In my dreams, I am alive, Filled with strength and passion Accepted, loved, for me, I strive, Family, full of compassion. In my dreams, I am true A body in which I love. Anything I wish, I can pursue. Without the discriminatory shoves. In my dreams, I am me. Hope, acceptance, love, I see. The falsity, pretense from which I flee In my dreams, I'm truly free. But I am cursed, for I cannot dream, Entrapped by the cruel reality And I've learnt, although things better may seem Will never last; for fortune avoids thee. 8/9/2017

NOTE: Unfortunately I have not been active for a while, so unfortunately I can't help anymore. Hopefully you can find someone else to help with your dex! Huge thanks once again for those who helped! Project: A hand to Arceus The Pokefarm community has been amazing to me. From the first PM I got when I joined, asking if I wanted some free legends, to the help/support I've gotten throughout my Farming journey - People who have given me charms, ZC, even HM to help fund my hunts; others who have donated the little currency they had when I was going for the UBs - I just want you guys to know, I really appreciate every little bit. I hope I can help repay the community in some way too, and so I'm beginning this initiative - to help anyone actively going for Arceus with the Sivally dexes. These dexes will be completely free as I know how painful UBs are - I hope that this will be my way of saying thank you to everyone who's ever helped me, reach Arceus. Preliminarily, the condition of actively going for Arceus is that you have at least 1 UB ordered from the egg supplier, or you have your own Sivally. I don't want to take business off other people who, undoubtedly, have spent a lot of time and effort to make the full set of memories c: You can help by selling me your flawless gems, or even messaging me giving your thoughts on this. I really appreciate all feedback ^^ If you're thinking about selling me some, I would really apprecaite if you'd possibly trade em for Flawless fire, but if you'd prefer currency/other items please PM me and maybe we can sort something out ^^ People who have contributed by gifting/selling me flawless at low prices: - Pizzaroo [Muff Pizza] (Grass) - Wardove (Normal) - Karakara (Ground, Ice, Poison, Flying) - TuneSakuNatsu (Fighting) - Mel [Eclipsed] (Bug) - Dragonov (Water) - Novie [Novan-Chan] (Electric/Dark Memory) - Annador (Psychic) - Shee Chwan (Bug) - Calypso (Dragon) - JaneCrocker (Rock) - Calle (Assortment of Flawless c:) - Sparkys (Fairy) - BananaLizard (Steel) - Rory (Ghost) Full click list of the amazing people above This project would not have worked without the help of these people. I literally only have 1 wishalloy badge, which is only about 5% of this... so if you have time, please give them a click c: What I still need: - 150 GP for cost of steel flawless. Flawless I have for swap: - Fire xMany - Bug x15 - Dragon x4 - Electric x3 - Ice x4 - Grass x3 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Arceus Plates - Progress

Melan Maths - Chimchar as a Case Study Unsatisfied with the conclusion of a 1 in 5k chance (non-arceus) of getting a melan in my previous post, and with albino chances generally seeming slightly higher than 1 in 200, I've decided to recalculate the non-arceus melan chance with the stats from my current Chimchar hunt. All eggs were hatched with a fully charged lvl 7 albino radar, HM, Uber and shiny charms, save a very small number of eggs (when I forgot to reactivate my shiny charm ;-;). My current hunt stats are: 441★/59☆/9✪/10355 Let us now ignore the melans; as most is due to arceus boost. Total number of shinies hatched is 441 (this already counts the melans as each melan adds one to the shiny chain). Total number of albinos hatched is 59+9 = 68 (During counting, I did not add to my albino count if a melan was rolled) Total number hatched: 10355 Conglomerate shiny chance = 1 in 23.48 Conglomerate albino chance = 1 in 152.28 Melan chance = shiny chance * albino chance = 0.00027967847 Which is equals to... 1 in 3575.5344 [Non-arceus; full boosts other than Z-crystal] There is hope yet... *Note: Stats will be recalculated when my hunt ends.

More melan math So a couple of people from Discord Pokeclickers were talking, and we discussed a more statistics based approach to determining a more general melan chance, factoring in various play styles, as well as ranking (Arceus/non-Arceus). Methodology Average number of eggs in which a melan takes to hatch is considered. This is done by taking the number of eggs hatched in multiple chains and finding the average. For example, if a melan is hatched 2/58, the number of eggs the melan has taken to hatch is 58 (assuming the first was not a melan). For example, if a melan is hatched at 2/58, then a 2nd is hatched a 4/102, the number of eggs the 2nd melan has taken to hatch is 102-58. Weaknesses - Does not take into account general melan chances if people change their chain often, as data will contain many early melans. Accuracy can be improved by only taking long chains into account. - Only gives a general idea of what chances are for a group of people; does not say anything about the boosts used. - Last melan may not reflect the entire melan chance of the chain, as they could have gotten lucky Below are statistics collected from the group (+ Meu's because still the longest chain on site :P). Kattibei Caterpie: 1530 2209 4222 5563 7872 8158 9077 9519 Blophin: 643 Finneon: 547 Annador Mincinno: 2029 Minun: 2449 Plusle: 3957 Bread Pyuku: 58, 203, 7318, 7500 SoraX Bulbasaur: 63 Scatterbug: 199 Meu Eevee: 1307 1602 4759 7899 8984 14137 14653 14704 14736 14750 15039 15618 17092 17505 18270 19468 22265 22353 22829 23928 23993 24110 24668 25544 27273 27640 28655 29768 30311 30665 30754 31709 32061 33077 34105 34765 35792 CSY Riolu: 991 Turtwig: 378 Apoc Golett: 2590 Shroomish: 392 Mareep: 128 Tepig: 54 Chimchar: 4059 4970 6255 6903 7418 8268 8313 9114 9351 Mel [Crooly] Pineco: 3656 4551 E.N.D and Zeref Wurmple: 880 1734 1845 Surfchu: 653 Kael [NotMatt] Snover: 182 Deerling: 675 4873 5170 Lorentius Clauncher: 5008 6283 9681 9716 Wynaut: 478 1426 Propagation of data here (Sorry if it's not labelled well!!) Conclusion The average no. of eggs hatched to obtain a melan in this group of people is 1 in 1151. If anyone who happens to read this (lol fat chance) wants to contribute their stats, please PM me ^^ Additional note Tab 2 of the excel sheet, Melan_Long Chains, only take into account melan chances of melans hatched at over 1k chains to attempt to minimize the possibility of people switching chains a lot and 'randomly' hatching melans. The chances there are 1 in 1278, but you'll have to consider that most of the stats are people hunting with Arceus.

If I'm not Arceus, how many do I have to hatch to realistically expect a melan mathematically? Since I've gotten a pretty nice (imo) number that suggests non-Arceus melan chances, time for more math, wheeeeee. All melan chances here are based on this post. It is important to note that it assumes you use HM, Shiny Charms, Uber and a lvl 7 fully maxed albino radar every day. No Arceus required. Since your chance of the egg rolling a melan is 1 in 3575.5344 which is approximately equal to 2 in 7151, the chance of the egg not rolling a melan is 7149 in 7151. For the purposes of simplicity, the first 40 pokemon to start the chain will be ignored. Lets say you hatch 1000 eggs. Your chances of NOT getting a melan would be (7149/7151)^1000 = 75.5995% Lets say you hatch 2000 eggs. Your chances of NOT getting a melan woud be (7149/7151)^1000 = 57.153% So, what number of eggs do you have to hatch to get to about 50% chance - when you'd probably hatch a melan with a good coin flip? Plotting (7149/7151)^x against 0.5 on a graph, the closest integer is 2478. (In case you were wondering - (7149/7151)^2478 = 50.000016% chance of NOT getting a melan) So, if ya hatch 2478 eggs, you have ~50% chance of getting a melan. Some people have gone over 10k without getting a melan. How common is that? Well, actually (7149/7151)^10000 is a 6.098% chance of not getting a melan... which is about 1 in 17, which is still pretty high. But mathematically, you should have gotten... 2.797 melans by now, so like, yea. You're kinda unlucky c: Obviously if you hatch 20k, you have a 0.372% chance of not getting a melan, and you'll also get to 3rd on the longest pokeradar chain leaderboard. (Unfortunately, due to the fact that everyone is arduously chaining long chains, you'll only get to 7th as of 8th of March, 2018). So TLDR if you're set on a melan, and you're usually part of the unlucky 1 in 17, unless ya wanna shoot for the longest pokeradar chains too... go for Arceus x) *Please remember this is all just maths based on statistics I've collected. If you really do go on a 20k chain and don't get a melan... you can PM me and I'd probably hunt you one for the effort. But that aside, don't quote me, because there's still a chance you never hatch one.

Final Countdown So apparently, theres a 4 second difference between me activating Uber and me activating HM. Highlights of this month: - 2 freaking melans in a day. Not even Sei... - Party with 2 albinos and a melan. - 3 melans in 2 days. - Finally hatched my female melan, wasn't Jolly. #Firstworldproblems - Finally got on the Top 10 longest Pokeradar chain leaderboard [8th; 12,493 atm] - Completed all the sivally memories, began offering free dexing :3 - Natsu also gifted me a load of summons for no apparent reason to guilt trip me into hunting for his stupid adamant. Naive Natsu still hasn't realized Naive is his calling. Jk much love <3