Single post in CSY's Journal: Maths and Musings

More melan math So a couple of people from Discord Pokeclickers were talking, and we discussed a more statistics based approach to determining a more general melan chance, factoring in various play styles, as well as ranking (Arceus/non-Arceus). Methodology Average number of eggs in which a melan takes to hatch is considered. This is done by taking the number of eggs hatched in multiple chains and finding the average. For example, if a melan is hatched 2/58, the number of eggs the melan has taken to hatch is 58 (assuming the first was not a melan). For example, if a melan is hatched at 2/58, then a 2nd is hatched a 4/102, the number of eggs the 2nd melan has taken to hatch is 102-58. Weaknesses - Does not take into account general melan chances if people change their chain often, as data will contain many early melans. Accuracy can be improved by only taking long chains into account. - Only gives a general idea of what chances are for a group of people; does not say anything about the boosts used. - Last melan may not reflect the entire melan chance of the chain, as they could have gotten lucky Below are statistics collected from the group (+ Meu's because still the longest chain on site :P). Kattibei Caterpie: 1530 2209 4222 5563 7872 8158 9077 9519 Blophin: 643 Finneon: 547 Annador Mincinno: 2029 Minun: 2449 Plusle: 3957 Bread Pyuku: 58, 203, 7318, 7500 SoraX Bulbasaur: 63 Scatterbug: 199 Meu Eevee: 1307 1602 4759 7899 8984 14137 14653 14704 14736 14750 15039 15618 17092 17505 18270 19468 22265 22353 22829 23928 23993 24110 24668 25544 27273 27640 28655 29768 30311 30665 30754 31709 32061 33077 34105 34765 35792 CSY Riolu: 991 Turtwig: 378 Apoc Golett: 2590 Shroomish: 392 Mareep: 128 Tepig: 54 Chimchar: 4059 4970 6255 6903 7418 8268 8313 9114 9351 Mel [Crooly] Pineco: 3656 4551 E.N.D and Zeref Wurmple: 880 1734 1845 Surfchu: 653 Kael [NotMatt] Snover: 182 Deerling: 675 4873 5170 Lorentius Clauncher: 5008 6283 9681 9716 Wynaut: 478 1426 Propagation of data here (Sorry if it's not labelled well!!) Conclusion The average no. of eggs hatched to obtain a melan in this group of people is 1 in 1151. If anyone who happens to read this (lol fat chance) wants to contribute their stats, please PM me ^^ Additional note Tab 2 of the excel sheet, Melan_Long Chains, only take into account melan chances of melans hatched at over 1k chains to attempt to minimize the possibility of people switching chains a lot and 'randomly' hatching melans. The chances there are 1 in 1278, but you'll have to consider that most of the stats are people hunting with Arceus.