Single post in CSY's Journal: Maths and Musings

Melan Maths - Chimchar as a Case Study Unsatisfied with the conclusion of a 1 in 5k chance (non-arceus) of getting a melan in my previous post, and with albino chances generally seeming slightly higher than 1 in 200, I've decided to recalculate the non-arceus melan chance with the stats from my current Chimchar hunt. All eggs were hatched with a fully charged lvl 7 albino radar, HM, Uber and shiny charms, save a very small number of eggs (when I forgot to reactivate my shiny charm ;-;). My current hunt stats are: 441★/59☆/9✪/10355 Let us now ignore the melans; as most is due to arceus boost. Total number of shinies hatched is 441 (this already counts the melans as each melan adds one to the shiny chain). Total number of albinos hatched is 59+9 = 68 (During counting, I did not add to my albino count if a melan was rolled) Total number hatched: 10355 Conglomerate shiny chance = 1 in 23.48 Conglomerate albino chance = 1 in 152.28 Melan chance = shiny chance * albino chance = 0.00027967847 Which is equals to... 1 in 3575.5344 [Non-arceus; full boosts other than Z-crystal] There is hope yet... *Note: Stats will be recalculated when my hunt ends.