Single post in CSY's Journal: Maths and Musings

Melan Maths: Chimchar, Final Count This post should have been completed ages ago, but I've been avoiding the word "chimchar", because quite frankly, 3 months of the same this is... ouch >w<. Anyways, 2 months ago, I made a post with stats from a 10k chimchar chain here. Here's the final count with my 16.5k end chain. All eggs were hatched with a fully charged lvl 7 albino radar, HM, Uber and shiny charms, and arceus, save a very small number of eggs (when I forgot to reactivate my shiny charm and the z-crystal I used). I've previously done a post about z-crystals and in my opinion, it does not drastically affect melan chances. Even if they did, if I hatched about 150 eggs in the z-crystal day, it would only take up 0.9% of all hatched eggs, which is quite insignificant. Final tally: 723★/101☆/18✪/16500 H Melans will be ignored, as most is due to arceus boost. Total number of shinies hatched is 723 (this already counts the melans as each melan adds one to the shiny chain). Total number of albinos hatched is 101+18 = 119 (During counting, I did not add to my albino count if a melan was rolled) Total number hatched: 16500 Shiny Chance = 1 in 22.8 Albino chance = 1 in 138.7 Melan chance = Shiny chance * Albino chance = 1 in 3161 Commentary Versus the previously calculated chance of 1 in 3575, the currently calculated melan chance is substantially lower, with a significantly lower albino chance. This further substantiates the fact that Arceus 'increases' melan chances by adjusting both shiny and albino chances rather than increasing albino given shiny (as would have to be done if melan chances were increased without an increase in either shiny or albino chances) The statistics I can gather can only ever serve as a rough estimate, as every 1k into the chain, I get an Arceus boost. I'm looking to gathering some data to do some maths for a more accurate estimate of melan chances without Arceus by looking/doing some sub-1k chains.