Single post in CSY's Journal: Maths and Musings

If I'm not Arceus, how many do I have to hatch to realistically expect a melan mathematically? Since I've gotten a pretty nice (imo) number that suggests non-Arceus melan chances, time for more math, wheeeeee. All melan chances here are based on this post. It is important to note that it assumes you use HM, Shiny Charms, Uber and a lvl 7 fully maxed albino radar every day. No Arceus required. Since your chance of the egg rolling a melan is 1 in 3575.5344 which is approximately equal to 2 in 7151, the chance of the egg not rolling a melan is 7149 in 7151. For the purposes of simplicity, the first 40 pokemon to start the chain will be ignored. Lets say you hatch 1000 eggs. Your chances of NOT getting a melan would be (7149/7151)^1000 = 75.5995% Lets say you hatch 2000 eggs. Your chances of NOT getting a melan woud be (7149/7151)^1000 = 57.153% So, what number of eggs do you have to hatch to get to about 50% chance - when you'd probably hatch a melan with a good coin flip? Plotting (7149/7151)^x against 0.5 on a graph, the closest integer is 2478. (In case you were wondering - (7149/7151)^2478 = 50.000016% chance of NOT getting a melan) So, if ya hatch 2478 eggs, you have ~50% chance of getting a melan. Some people have gone over 10k without getting a melan. How common is that? Well, actually (7149/7151)^10000 is a 6.098% chance of not getting a melan... which is about 1 in 17, which is still pretty high. But mathematically, you should have gotten... 2.797 melans by now, so like, yea. You're kinda unlucky c: Obviously if you hatch 20k, you have a 0.372% chance of not getting a melan, and you'll also get to 3rd on the longest pokeradar chain leaderboard. (Unfortunately, due to the fact that everyone is arduously chaining long chains, you'll only get to 7th as of 8th of March, 2018). So TLDR if you're set on a melan, and you're usually part of the unlucky 1 in 17, unless ya wanna shoot for the longest pokeradar chains too... go for Arceus x) *Please remember this is all just maths based on statistics I've collected. If you really do go on a 20k chain and don't get a melan... you can PM me and I'd probably hunt you one for the effort. But that aside, don't quote me, because there's still a chance you never hatch one.