Shiny/Albino Bad luck protection

Due to the recent changes of odds, I figured I'd make a suggestion I've had the pleasuer of experience in other games. Suggestion Title:Bad luck protection Suggestion Summary:Upon failing a roll an "unlucky" number of times, the subsequent rolls become more likely (marginally!) until a successful hit, at which point the odds return to normal. For example; you have a 1/160 chance of a shiny, upon not hatching a shiny for 200 hatchs (about a 28.5% chance) then the odds become 2/160 for 50 more rolls (15% cumulative at this point) it becomes 3/160 etc etc. Some games call this a "pity" system, but are generally garunteed. I'm not on about that, pity systems are abuseable (and possibly rejected already. If not, someone feel free to suggest it instead of this!) Positive points: + Unlucky people feel the effects, and minimizes negative feelings. + paid boosts and none-paid boosts both benefit from reaching thresholds faster, incentivising players to use these. + Obfuscates the "freebie" problem due to it still being chance. Negative points: - Potentially allows shenanigans of "farming" for bad odds, then boosting odds to garuntee melan. The fix for this requires remembering what the user did each day since last special and would be intense on storage - Balancing would require time - Raises the general quantity of shiny/albinos Reason For Consideration: People who pay for the game feel entitled to shiny and albino pokemon, this feels like a middle ground that people may wish to walk for a while. To paraphrase "If in doubt, do it, you'll have more information that way to make an informed decision" However, the quantity of shiny/albinos is already quite high and we're still seeing the effects of the most recent changes. I understand if this requires more time before giving this suggestion any real consideration (or not).

I'm not opposed to this, but I'm a little bit curious how this could be balanced as not to be taken advantage of. The first problem I see is that doubling shiny odds is inherently going to double melan odds as well. The first "fix" that comes to mind is that, once a shiny has been rolled, the subsequent albino odds are halved, effectively keeping the melan odds the same. I also think it'd be better to scale it, although I know the exact numbers are not exactly the point here. For example, your shiny odds could be (1/200 + (eggs hatched since last shiny)/200), which effectively doubles it at 200 eggs since last shiny with a gradual increase up until then. This would also be a nominal increase to shiny odds overall if done this way, though, so the numbers can definitely be tweaked.

Because melans are rolled as if shiny, apply melan multiplier to albino odds, if a pokemon rolls shiny, then the proposed albino bad luck protection could/would simply be ignored. If this is exclusively taken for shiny, then the increase to melans would be difficult to quantify, as it would be be *technically* double odds, but this is supposed to come immediately after a dry spell of no shinies at all. It would increase overall shinies and melans however, you are right, but would be slight, as those who hit bad luck (say, 30% bad luck) need to miss getting 200 times to get the increased odds. That means 70% of the time, people wont interact with this system, so doubling (or at least increasing) would be dulled by that requirement and in this example, would be a 60% increase to the number of melans in the market assuming everyone who hunts shinies would hunt for melans too. Of course, a linear scale can work ( (1+(eggs since last shiny)/200)/200, aka 1/200 * (1+ ESLS/200) ) but would feel very slow. It doesn't snowball into abuse or and isn't hard balance, but if people are "expecting" specials after a certain point, an exponent bad luck protection would alleviate concenrns (if you take 50% as the threshold, your shiny chances become a 1/2 after 280 eggs if my napkin maths is right which is 2 days). I think 50% isn't bad luck but it's the closest i could get to "garuntee" 1 shiny a day. A 15-30% bad luck I think is fine, but that's just an opinion :P

i think this is a good idea! personally id suggest something a little different, ie, if you chain to 10k with no specials your 10,001st egg is guaranteed to be a special. 10k may be too high or low of a number, but i think having that guarantee at a pretty high cap gives people incentive to keep going with hunts despite no real returns itd also make memory sticks more useful and maybe if you chain to some ridiculously high number and get no melan, your next egg is a guaranteed account locked melan, that cannot be traded for delta points? this would be really great for folks who want a melan they just like the look of! idk haha. maybe for chains of 100k or 500k or some other ridiculous number like that XD

Seeing Albinos aren't chained, I don't believe it'll be possible to create a "pity system" for it without majorly changing the game. On the other hand, I'm not Niet, and I haven't seen the code behind this game for myself. As for the Shinies, I fully support it. Seeing the uber charm/shiny charm/z-crystal/Sei/etc has been "de-oped"/"de-buffed," hunts have become... difficult. I've never been on a 1k chain before, as my chains are normally 100-300 eggs depending on my motivation, but before I could get 1-3+ specials from a 100 chain (with only my albino radar on as a so-called "buff" for specials). Now I have 100-200 egg chains, a shiny charm, a lvl 7 radar, and a z-crystal but get zero specials. Once I got lucky and got a shiny early (50 eggs, no shiny charm but it was a Sei day) in a hunt, but got zero specials afterward. Additionally, I noticed the game counts how many shinies received from a said chain - maybe this can be used to keep the "pity system" from being abused? My thoughts are that as with each shiny you get, the "pity" you obtain from eggs after that said shiny is a percentage less than before (meaning more eggs are needed to obtain that pity). This, combined with the pity resetting after each shiny, can ensure that players actually have to put the effort into a hunt if they want to obtain multiple shinies. Edits: Edit one) Clarification Edit two) Forgot a detail Edit three/four) Grammar

@AlyssSolo, The idea is that it can work for Albinos using a similar system, but since the albino radar drops on midnight, and can be used to hunt multiple pokemon at once, it would either need to store a lot of data, or "forget" any pokemon that wasn't the most recent; which implies that hunting is the best way to play. On reflection, I've come to agree that it doesn't fit with the "PFQ is what you want to do" mantra, as well as being intensive to implement. So even I'm against Albino now haha That being said, for shinies, it would be once you recieve a shiny from a hatch, the increased odds are reset to baseline, it's not when you get a "boosted odds shiny." Whether it's you 150th egg or 450th egg, the ones after start at the baseline again. Increasing the eggs required to recieve next pity does mean it influences Melans less due to Long Chain Bonus though. Interesting idea! :D

That's what I thought you meant. My decreased pity suggestion was implying decreasing it unbiasedly, meaning it's decreased regardless of you receiving a shiny that was affected by the pity system or not - which I presume is how you interpreted it. This, as a bonus, would make it easier to code vs decreased pity for every "pity shiny," if you get what I mean. Edit: Grammar

no support, i like my shinies and albino hard to get, i like working for my rewards. it gives more satisfaction when you get one finally

I personally understand what you mean, but from my understanding, the OP (Stichman) wasn't recommending a shiny after something like every 50 eggs, they were recommending a shiny after hundreds of them. Even with a pity system, you would still have to put a lot of effort into it, like you would have to do with other games. For example, in Genshin Impact, hard pity (guaranteed 5* character) kicks in at ~80 wishes. This doesn't seem like a lot, but this means you have to grind for ~12.8 thousand of the wishing currency, which gets scarcer as you progress in the game. Without the pity system, players would be grinding for ~0.5 mil+ of the wishing currency instead of ~12.8 thousand. Currently, with how all the buffs were nuked, players have to grind 2k+ chains to get 1-3 shinies instead of 200+ chains, which is especially painful with those hunting legendaries/mythicals/ultra beasts. Oh! @Stichman34, legendaries/mythicals/ultra beasts are purposely designed to be harder to hunt, meaning wouldn't this pity idea have to account for them? Like in my example mentioned earlier, Genshin has lower pity for characters with a lower value (being ~10 wishes), while higher pity for those with a higher value (being ~80 wishes). Shouldn't the same be done for legendaries/mythicals/ultra beasts? For example, 200 eggs (BASE PITY) for Magikarp while 2000 or 20000 (BASE PITY) for Tapu Koko?

still wouldn't give as much satisfaction if its guaranteed, that way it wouldn't be as rare. pokefarm would be flooded with shinies, i could see the pity system working if its like in the 9000's range though