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Scour Chance Experiment (AKA, CWS has fun with statistics)

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Camwoodstock's AvatarCamwoodstock
Camwoodstock's Avatar
NOTE: Should Niet ever release an actual scour rate table or calculator, trust that instead of my findings. For now, though, this is a for-fun project that should not be taken seriously--quite the opposite. Instead, it's a lot better to just take this as an adventure in some rando guy's (mis)fortune. ...oh! And should a staff member--for some reason--hold issue with me holding this experiment, I will stop and keep it to myself.
If you look on the wiki, there are no tables to showcase the scour area's loot chances. "That's odd," I thought, namely because Boxes do show the chances of their loot. It's not exactly surprising, though--given how Scours actually fluctuate based on a variety of factors, such as the Uzumi bonus, the daily reward, a Pokemon's energy, their preferred location, and all that mumbo jumbo... It'd be more useful to make a calculator that shows you how effective scours would be for the day than it would be to make a chart. But that's lame, and not science-y! I got bored one day, and asked myself: "what would happen if I tracked my scours and brute-forced my way to a true average? ignoring things such as daily rewards, fatigue nerfs, and my own crumby luck--what do i get most often and what do I get least often?" So that's where this thread comes in. I made an excel spreadsheet to count how many items I get, and my top-bottom amount of credits gained. From there, I can calculate how often I get an item at any given time, the average credits one can get, and other things only a hardened statistics fan would love. I plan to update this experiment every 100 scours (give or take) so long as: 1) I remember to keep doing this 2) Staff holds no issues with me goofing around with statistics 3) I care enough about this experiment Currently, I've tracked 300 scours. The chart itself is below: (last updated: 3/12/2019) Remarks: Only two real points I think are notable for this update: 1) Evolution ITEMS have surpassed the evolution STONES. I get the feeling they're actually about equal, but time will tell. 2) Finally, common berries aren't rarer than standard berries! ...by being as common as standard berries. I still get the feeling this is a fluke.
Below are archives of older posts. More minor updates are kept to their own update post, but certain big milestones will be kept here for posterity.

Notable Archives

100 scours

Remarks: Of course with my luck, Nothing would be that high up there. Of course, given I'm not separating instances with fatigued pokemon, it's not surprising--in fact, it's entirely my fault. I may separate the counters between Pokemon with green, yellow, and red charge in the future, but that depends on if anyone thinks that'd be a worthy addition.
Source: Eastern Mind (MS-DOS), the Chu-Teng Symbol
~CWS - THE EPIC BLUNDER~
{Cam | Genderfluid | (Age Anonymous) | Single | Dork | Plays video games | 132nd Skywatcher} Scour Chances • More to come, hopefully Icon: Boxart for Japanese-only game "Chu-Teng" (name romanized)
Adian's AvatarAdian
Adian's Avatar
I am interested in this and would be willing to start logging my own results it you would like?
Type Race Score: 3348 Selling all kinds of pokemon, items, dexes, adoptions and newbie freebies! Banner created by, Maomi, purchased for me by ChibiLunaThorn. Avatar made by Yutalia@DA. Purchased and used with permission.
Camwoodstock's AvatarCamwoodstock
Camwoodstock's Avatar

QUOTE originally posted by Adian

I am interested in this and would be willing to start logging my own results it you would like?
If you want, you can share your own results--though I probably won't merge them with my own chart (as it wouldn't really add to any accuracy given the odds are the methods would be different).
Adian's AvatarAdian
Adian's Avatar
I hadn't even thought of that! :O I may just log my results privately then! Can I ask what program or site you use to make your tables and lots?
Camwoodstock's AvatarCamwoodstock
Camwoodstock's Avatar

QUOTE originally posted by Adian

I hadn't even thought of that! :O I may just log my results privately then! Can I ask what program or site you use to make your tables and lots?
I just use Microsoft Excel. Stuff like the calculations of total scours, percentages, and that sort of thing are simply done using the program's various functions like =SUM and =AVG. In fact, the only things I need to edit in the table are how much of every item I get and (if applicable) the newest high-low for credits, which I update as I retrieve the scours. Really, if you know even the basics of Excel, this is peanuts--the hard part is just getting the data!
Adian's AvatarAdian
Adian's Avatar
Ah, alright thank you for sharing. :) I'm eager to see how this processes!
I'm interested to see the results of this as time goes on! I've started logging my results too. (I know my paramaters are at least slightly different than yours because I'm only using pokemon with green batteries.) I was wondering though: does this mean you're doing this with absolutely no boosts and no pokemon that give scour boosts?
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Camwoodstock's AvatarCamwoodstock
Camwoodstock's Avatar

QUOTE originally posted by GalaxyHeartbeats

I'm interested to see the results of this as time goes on! I've started logging my results too. (I know my paramaters are at least slightly different than yours because I'm only using pokemon with green batteries.) I was wondering though: does this mean you're doing this with absolutely no boosts and no pokemon that give scour boosts?
I am using max scour boosts--as for Pokemon that give scour boosts... Those exist? I was never told... ^^;

QUOTE originally posted by Camwoodstock

I am using max scour boosts--as for Pokemon that give scour boosts... Those exist? I was never told... ^^;
Ah I mean like revived fossil pokemon and how they give a higher chance of finding fossils in scours. So I looked at the fossil page on the wiki for a source to ^ that and I came up with nothing. In fact the wiki says any fossil pokemon is more likely to find fossils of its species. So maybe that's considered a boost? You can check the wiki yourself to see what's going on there. But it's probably not too relevant to the data you're collecting if you're using max scour boosts. (I'm also using max boosts. And I'm only scouring with Prehistorics.)
Camwoodstock's AvatarCamwoodstock
Camwoodstock's Avatar
Bump, 'cuz I finally have gotten to about 200! (I'll be archiving 100 in a hidebox of the original post, and all future updates will be archived as their posts announcing them come.) My notes: • As I expected, Nothing rates were kind of a fluke, but the ripple effect of them being so frequent can still be felt. • Finally, fossils! These seem to have a base rate of... 0.5%, give or take? Of course, as this continues, we'll see this get more concrete. • New highest credits! I predict the true high is 750, but no clue what the lowest credits is... Yet. • Boxes seem to be a consistant 12% chance so far... No clue if this will change as time progresses. • Easily the most common item is the accessory. Makes sense--the only other place you can even get those is in the contest hall shop, where you pay (what else) berries for certain ones that can't be found naturally. • Normal berries are noticeably more common than the actual common berries...? I'm not sure if this is just my luck being odd, or if something really strange is going on. I'll update again at 300, should I not procrastinate on it. Aiming for every 100 = an update.

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